Big-5 European leagues · Monte-Carlo projection

How far can a teenager go?

A career projection model for young footballers, built on 24,057 real player-seasons. Choose a prospect to see his likely goals, assists and minutes from today to a notional age 38, plus how his path compares to the all-time greats.

NOT TRUSTWORTHY

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Non-penalty goals per season

Career outlook

likely range (8 in 10 land here)

Reading the chart

Solid line: what really happened, his seasons so far.
Dashed line: the most likely future, from 6,000 simulations.
Shaded fan: the middle 50% and 80% of outcomes. It widens because the future gets less certain.
Trust the dashed line more than the fan. The model's best guess is sound and holds up on data it never saw. The error bars are honestly too wide, so read the fan as a rough shape, not as odds.

Every prospect, ranked

projected remaining league goals · dot is the best guess, bar is the likely range